"Though
the military response to Boko Haram has become more cogent, the Lake
Chad states should not too quickly proclaim 'mission accomplished'," the
International Crisis Group said.
"Even
if they are made to abandon all territorial pretensions in Nigeria's
northeast and the Lake Chad area, or are forced to abandon their
guerrilla war, some Boko Haram militants at least are likely to seek to
continue their insurgency in some form, probably through terror
attacks," the security analysts added.
Nigeria
and its neighbours Cameroon, Chad and Niger are due to hold a security
summit in Abuja on May 14 with international partners including Britain,
France and the United States.
The
ICG said the meeting -- two years after the first in Paris -- was "an
opportunity to consolidate regional and wider international cooperation"
as well as review current policies.
Closer
ties beyond military support were vital to address key drivers of the
conflict, as well as its effects, to prevent sustained support for the
Islamists and similar, future threats.
These
include addressing the humanitarian situation for the more than 2.8
million people made homeless by the violence since 2009, and
re-establishing the rule of law and governance in the region.
Also
key was treatment of detained Boko Haram suspects and even more
moderate fighters willing to be rehabilitated, the ICG wrote in a
briefing paper, "Boko Haram on the back foot?"
"How
governments treat and distinguish Boko Haram ideologues from those who
joined from other motives will be vital," the report said.
"Dealing appropriately with ex-members is the first step to lessen recruitment."
Nigeria's
military on Tuesday said dozens of Boko Haram fighters were now at a
rehabilitation camp in an undisclosed location and undergoing a
"deradicalisation" programme.
- 'Difficult to eradicate' -
President
Muhammadu Buhari, who has made defeating Boko Haram a priority since
taking power last year, in December declared that the Islamic State
group affiliate was "technically" defeated.
Armed
service chiefs have in recent days also been talking up operations in
Boko Haram's Sambisa Forest stronghold, indicating a final push was
under way.
But
the rebels have still been able to deploy suicide bombers in northeast
Nigeria, and particularly northern Cameroon, even if attacks have
decreased in Chad and Niger.
The
ICG recommended winding down the use of civilian militia forces who
have helped the military maintain security but also been accused of
abuses against civilians.
A
failure to do so could increase the risk of local, communal violence,
it warned, adding: "Many could become tools for local politicians to
misuse."
Boko
Haram, whose push for a hardline Islamic state in northeast Nigeria has
left more than 20,000 people dead since 2009, has come to resemble a
marauding criminal gang in recent months.
The
ICG, however, cautioned that its reduced capacity to operate beyond
hit-and-run raids for resources should not be under-estimated.
"Much
like other jihadist groups, such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
(AQIM), it may become less a guerrilla force attached to a specific
territory and more a terror group with a longer reach," the report
added.
"Even
if it may be on its back foot, Boko Haram is likely to be difficult to
eradicate, because it originates from Nigeria's deep structural
challenges."
These
include deep-seated corruption and poor governance, as well as
perceived regional inequalities, abject poverty and lack of opportunity
that Boko Haram was able to exploit for support.
A
failure to tackle these, combined with uncertainty and weakness in
neighbouring countries, could prolong Boko Haram's existence in a
different form or even create a new security threat, the ICG added.
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